Phone: +34 928 458205
E-mail: juanluis.eugenio @ ulpgc.es
Work in progress
Eugenio-Martin, J.L., J.M. Cazorla-Artiles, A. Moreda and J.M. Murguia (2023)
Adaptive nowcasting of arrivals during health crises
This paper develops a new methodology to nowcast the number of arrivals during
health-related crises such as Covid-19. The methodology is adaptive, so that the
relevance of different determinants vary over time by employing hurdles that work as
‘necessary travelling conditions’. It starts with a baseline series built upon a pre-Covid-
19 trend. This series is adjusted by each hurdle. The first hurdle is the market closure;
SIR epidemiological models are applied to anticipate the dates of re-opening. The
second hurdle deals with key travelling determinants such as the income effect. The
third hurdle is the lack of confidence; this depends on the length of the recovery, and
the expected path to follow.
Cazorla-Artiles, J.M. and J.L. Eugenio-Martin (2023)
Optimal targeting of latent tourism demand segments
This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent
tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies
latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing
by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a
fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market
segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target
markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result
has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal
channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign. [Paper]
Tourism Economics. In particular: Determinants of tourism demand; Forecasting; Economic impacts assessment; Optimal tourism development; and Sustainable Tourism.
Methodologies of interest: Microeconometrics; Panel data; Structural time series; and Computable general equilibrium.
¿Cómo puedo montar una base de datos en Stata? Herramientas para:
8th IATE 2022 was held at Perpignan: [Link]
9th IATE 2024 is expected to be held in Orlando (USA).
This version: April 2023